The impact of the development of electronic currency on currency circulation -based on coexistence empirical research Zhou Guangyou (Xi'an Jiaotong University School of Economics and Finance, Shaanxi, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061) Abstract: Through statistical analysis, this article believes that the factors that the electronic currency affects the speed of currency circulation is mainly: cash ratio, "liquidity" of the supply of goods The influence is different. Further analysis found that Chinese electronic currency has two obvious alternative effects on traditional currency: one is the alternative acceleration effect, the other is the alternative conversion effect. Make the electronic currency from speeding up the currency circulation. has led to a decline in currency circulation, which is contrary to the conclusions of most scholars. Reasons for the decline in speed. At the same time, the electronic currency will inevitably reach the effectiveness of the monetary policy through the shadow of the speed of currency circulation. Therefore, the central bank must consider it when formulating a monetary policy. T keywords: Electronic currency; currency circulation speed; monetary policy effect; co -consolidation mixu classification number: Literature logo code: a article number: Authors profile: The first author: Zhou Guangyou (1971,55 -), Doctor of Economics, Research Direction: Monetary Financial Theory. The published academic papers in core journals. contact information: Zhou Guangyou, the Department of International Trade (Receive) Postcode: 451191 Tel: 0371-62436179 Mobile: (0) email: gyzhou@tom (priority) 2 n electronic currency development pair pair Impact of currency circulation -based on coordinated empirical research Zhou Guangyou (Xi'an University of Communications University Economics and Finance, Shaanxi Xi'an, Xi'an 710061) Abstract: Through statistical analysis, this article believes that electronic currency affects currency currency The main factors of circulation speed are: cash ratio, "flow sex" of currency supply, the degree of financial electronicization, and the degree of monetary electronicization. Their impact on currency circulation speed is different. Further analysis found that medium The national electronic currency has two obvious alternative effects on traditional currency: one is to replace the acceleration effect, and the other is the alternative conversion effect. The decline in currency circulation is declining, which is the opposite of the research knot of most scholars . The conclusion of this article may be used to explain the reasons for the decline in the currency circulation rate in China in recent years. At the same time, electronic currency n The impact of circulation speed will inevitably reach the effectiveness of monetary policy. Therefore, the central bank must consider when formulating monetary policy. keywords: electronic currency; currency circulation speed; monetary policy effect; cooperation; The emergence and development of electronic currencies not only changed people's living habits and payment methods, but also brought great challenges to traditional goods . The rapid development of electronic currency, its replacement effect on the alternative of currency and deposit is increasingly obvious. At the same time, the speed of currency circulation in China has shown a declining trend. The formulation and implementation of the formulation and implementation will have a large impact. Theoretically, because electronic currency has the characteristics of high flow , its replacement of traditional currency will inevitably change the speed of currency circulation, and from many electronic currencies to develop rapidly countries faster countries, countries will develop rapidly countries faster countries. It's actual data, since the emergence of electronic currencies, the speed of currency circulation has become extremely unstable, so it can be determined that electronic currency will inevitably affect the speed of currency circulation. As for the degree of influence, there is a degree of impact. How big is the question we want to study questions. Therefore, the research on this issue can not only explain the reasons for the changes in currency circulation from another perspective, but also the effectiveness of the currency policy of the high Central Bank of China It has important significance. The structure arrangement below this article is: the first part is a review of the literature. On the basis of reviewing relevant literature at home and abroad, a brief review of the theoretical views related to The theoretical hypothetical of this article. The second part is the empirical analysis process of the correlation between the electrical The correlation of the currency circulation speed. The fourth part is the analysis of the model results. Finally Policy suggestions. , Literature Summary In according to the definition of the Basel Committee: Electronic currency refers to in the retail payment mechanism, through sales terminals, different between electronic devices, and public networks on public networks (Such as Internet) The "storage value" and prepaid payment mechanism performed on the payment of payment. [1] Cash refers to the number of currency circulation in a certain period of time (usually one year). The factors that affect the goods of the goods The currency flow speed change have been studied. In European Central Bank (1988) In the "Electronic Currency Report", it is believed that electronic currency will accelerate the speed of currency circulation; [2] Some reports of the research of the International Clearance Bank (BIS) on the development and application of electronic currencies in various countries introduced and their risks and regulatory research, which involved the speed of electronic currency circulation to varying degrees. The content of the , and believes that the electronic currency will accelerate the currency circulation .Survey of Money (1996), [3] for centiedS of the of Money (BIS, 1996 October of the year ), Risk for Banking and Money (BCBS, March 1998), BIS published in May 2000 and November 2001, respectively, entitled Survey of , respectively R N Money's two reports, and then published Survey of in Money and Internet and Mobile Payments. The relevant literature also believes that the electronic currency will affect the speed of currency circulation. BERENTSEN, Kyklos (1998), which discusses the characteristics of electronic currency products, and proposes the use of electronic goods coins will have the demand for currency demand for currency demand , The supply and currency circulation speed has an impact; [4] BerenSen (2002) The discussion of electronic currency demand for currency and its process, currency circulation speed, reserve demand, central bank currency control and currency The impact of policy transmission mechanism; [5] James A. Dorn (1996) believes that due to the existence of electronic currencies and its impact on the speed of currency circulation, the ability to control the basic currency of the central bank; [6] Susan M. Sullivan (2002) believes that with the widespread use of electronic currencies, the control capabilities of the central bank's currency supply will be limited, the speed of currency circulation accelerated Wait. [7] From the perspective of domestic perspective, Wang Lubin (1999), when analyzing the impact of electronic currencies on currency demand, believes that the electronic currency replace Speed. [8] Yin Long (2000) When analyzing the impact of electronic currency on monetary politics The impact on the control of the target of the intermediary target, according to the traditional currency theory, the circulation speed of the currency is basically stable or Regular changes are predictable. On this basis, we can determine a control scale and degree of intermediary target that is consistent with the final goal. Electronic currency will make this theory no longer be established. The impact on currency circulation speed is randomly touched , resulting in the accuracy of short -term currency circulation speed that is difficult to predict or predict. [9] Dong Xin, Zhou Hai (2001) is analyzing electronic electronics in analysis of electronics When the currency demand for currency is believed that the alternative of electronic currency reduces the cash in circulation, speeds up the circulation speed of currency , and reduces the number of transactions using cash. R n key factors of policy-the currency demand for central banks will be reduced. [10] Chen Yulu, Bian Weihong (2002) introduced electronic goods The speed impact, believes that when the electronic currency is gradually replaced, especially the popularization and development of online electronic currencies. The electronic currency of the Bit pattern uses light and electrical as a material carrier, and the limits of the speed of light at are on the Internet. High -speed circulation has a strong randomness, which leads to the speed of short -term currency circulation It is difficult to pre - The accuracy of measurement or prediction is affected. Fei Xue's equations need to be further tested. [11] Yang Luming, Chen Hongyan (2002) analyzed the target of monetary policy intermediaries in In the effect of controlling, the development of electronic currency is increasingly declining the rationality and scientificity of the medium . In terms of measurement, the calculation and measurement of the number of currencies is being subject to electronic goods The decentralized issuance of currency, the rapid conversion between various levels of currency, the increase in alternativeness between financial assets, the speed of currency circulation acceleration and other aspects. Coupled with the instability of currency circulation The effects of fixed and currency multiplications, the controllability of the currency volume is facing the challenge. [12] Pu Chengyi (2002) combined with the actual situation of Chinese currency supply , explore the actual discussion, explore the actual discussion, discuss the actual discussion, and explore. The impact of digital cash on the speed of currency supply and currency circulation. It is believed that the speed of currency circulation is in the early stage (mainly v0). The total amount of M1 will lead to its short -term trend of its flow speed and the total trend of transformation to M0, which will lead to the short time retention time and the total amount tends to be reduced. VE) will turn to the upward trend, that is, the change characteristics of currency circulation speed changes are V -shaped . [13] Zhang Hong, Chen Jie (2003) believes that electronic currency has accelerated the speed of currency circulation, so that the market economy Under conditions The non -unique factor affecting the speed of currency circulation. [14] Tang Ping (2005) believes that the widespread use of electronic currencies makes it It is no longer obvious, and the average circulation speed of the currency continues to accelerate. [15] , when some scholars at home and abroad analyze the influencing factors of currency circulation speed, although the electronic currency is not made as an impact as an impact Factors are analyzed, but these analysis contains the impact of electronic currency on the speed of currency circulation. Ai Hong De, Fan Nan (2002) obtained financial analysis of the influencing factors of Chinese currency circulation, and obtained financial financial analysis, and obtained financial finance. The degree of development is one of the factor that affects the speed of China's currency circulation. [16] Liang Dapeng, Qi Zhongying (2004) adopted financial correlation and gold The circulation speed of currency returns to study the relationship between China's financial innovation The relationship between the new and currency circulation speed. The results show that China's financial innovation is positively correlated with the circulation speed of MO and ML, but with M2's M2's The circulation speed is negative. [17] In this shows that at home and abroad, at home and abroad, the impact of the influencing factors of currency circulation involves The impact on the speed of currency circulation by electronic currency. However, in general, most scholars' impact on electronic currency on currency circulation only staying on the theoretical analysis level, and believes that the electronic currency will Accelerate currency circulation, so as to increase 4 The difficulty in controlling the basic currency of the central bank. When empirical research on factors affecting the speed of currency circulation, there are few considering the electronic currency pairs of electronic currency pairs. The impact of currency circulation speed, let alone the factors that affect the electronic currency as a factor affecting the speed of currency circulation It included in the model, so the empirical research on the correlation between the circulation of electronic currency and currency is relatively lack of. It can be clearly seen in the conclusions of foreign scholars' research that the impact of electronic currency on the speed of currency circulation is objective existence, and this impact should be more and more obvious with the rapid development of electronic currencies. As for the degree of influence of this , it mainly depends on the depth and breadth of electronic currency replacement of traditional currencies and its mechanism for the action of currency circulation . Most of the scholars at home and abroad agree that electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics. The existence and development of currency will inevitably accelerate the currency flow . From the perspective of the development of China's electronic currency, especially since the development of China's electronic currency , China The circulation speed has shown a trend of continuous decline for a long time, especially the circulation of broad currencies has decreased significantly. Therefore, the view that electronic currency will inevitably accelerate the currency circulation speed and cannot explain the electronics currency and N currency and N currency and N of China This is the same between the two of the currency circulation speed. Although there are many factors that affect the speed of currency circulation , and the effects of these factors are different in different countries and different periods. Electronic currency is only one of its , and electronic currencies are not the decisive factor affecting the speed of currency circulation, especially in the development of electronic currencies in the early stages of development in the early stage of development. However, on the one hand, the impact of electronic currency on currency circulation has an increasingly obvious trend, and on the other hand, China's currency circulation speed has shown a trend of continuous decline for a long time. What kind of relationship is between circulation speed? Whether the development of electronic currencies is accelerating or decreased The currency circulation speed. This is the starting point of this article. The extent and mechanism of currency on the speed of currency circulation, improve the effectiveness of the currency , based on the existing research results, use the co -consolidated theoretical method and error correction model to establish -The stable relationship between electronic currency and currency circulation between 2000, and analyze the factors that affect the speed of currency circulation, and then propose corresponding policy suggestions. , model variable selection and sample data description (1) Model selection The analysis of the influence of electronic currency on the speed of Chinese currency circulation in this article is the theoretical method of consolidation, it Basic content. In the analysis process of this article, the more important thing is the use of error correction model use At present, the method of establishing an error correction model usually includes English two-step method and wickens-breusch one step method. This article selects English two-step method to calculate the effect of currency circulation speed and its variables for short-term shocks . Because the error correction of the two-step method of Engle-Granger contains short-term dynamic behavior, that is, contains differences, so you can use it to consider the short-term impact. You can get a long -term static equation compared to the first -order single -time sequence, so use it to illustrate the influence of long -term currency flow In the case, the coordination relationship illustrates the change relationship between the number group , the long-term static equation illustrates the long-term relationship between them, and the two-step method of English Relationship, so the reflection of the relationship between the first two is more important. (2) Selection of data indicators The specific selection value of the influencing factors of currency circulation on the speed of currency circulation on the speed of Chinese currency circulation, has been listed in the attached Table 1. From the situation of data collection at home and abroad, because monthly data and quarterly data are difficult In this article uses annual indicators in the measurement model. To ensure the model to ensure the model The accuracy and scientificity, the number of variables The selection should not be too much. At the same time, the compound linearity between the indicators cannot appear. When selecting the data index, select the three representative three representatives. Different currency level indicators, the purpose is to better analyze the electronic currency conditions, the alternative effect of the electronic currency against (M0/m2) .1 It shows that cash accounts for a broad currency ratio. The purpose of selecting this indicator is that with the popularization and application of The currency has has a strong liquidity, which makes the differences between M0, M1, M2 tending to blur, and the conversion between the levels of each currency is not only between M0, M1, M2 The content and scope of the conversion, that is, the content and scope of the conversion, especially the transformation of the gold -fusion assets (valuable securities and other financial investment products), that is, along M0, M1, M2, M3, ... , Mn's foot code order The direction of elevated transformation. In the era of electronic currency, the cost of this reverse conversion is very small, and the time required is almost zero. Universal use, currency level form M0, m1, m2, m3, ..., mn will gradually exist to increase the direction of the direction of the order number. This change will inevitably reduce the number of cash in circulation, cash cash, cash, The ratio of righteous currency decreases with the Guang , thereby reducing the speed of currency circulation. 2, "liquidity" of currency supply (m1/m2) 2. It indicates that the proportion of narrow currency supply relative to the broad currency supply. . When the value of M1/M2 is increasing That is to say, the proportion of currencies that will be used to buy and pay in broad The proportion of currency supply is relatively increased, the liquidity of currency supply is increased, and the currency circulation is accelerated; To decrease, it indicates that the proportion of quasi currencies in the broader currency supply increases, the liquidity of currency supply has weakened, and the flow of goods has decreased. Generally speaking, in the initial stage of the electronic currency exhibition, electronic currency pairs are paired The replacement of cash and current deposits is relatively obvious. Therefore, if the ratio of the "liquidity" indicator of our country decreases, it means that the alternative of electronic currencies on China's current On the contrary, from the perspective of the actual data of our country, the ratio of has decreased from 81.9%in 1978 to 27.6%. 3 in 2000. )/M2 to replace, the point of view is that the larger the proportion of gold in the financial system in a country, the higher the proportion of gold, the higher the degree of financial electronicization of the country. Under electronic currency conditions, due to electronic currency conditions n The degree of replacement weakens with the decline of liquidity, so the alternative effect of electronic currencies on M0 must also be greater than the alternative generation of M2. In this way, the decrease of M0 will make the (M2-M0)/m2 of the (M2-M0)/m2. The ratio of the ratio has increased, and the degree of financial electronicization has increased. From the perspective of the actual data of our country's , since the reform and opening up, especially since the mid -1990s, China's financial electronic levels have gradually increased. The first period is also the period of the rapid development of China's electronic currency. 4, the degree of money electronic (FA/M1). According to the different liquidity of financial assets, financial assets can be divided into transactions Investment financial assets are two parts. Trading financial assets are those who can be used for direct payment . It has a strong liquidity. According to the division of the currency level, it can be approximately regarded as a narrow currency ML. Investment gold The financial assets that have a poor liquidity of assets, but it has the characteristics of income due to expiry, mainly includes quasi -currency, valid securities and financial derivatives. Under electronic and currency conditions Because electronic currency not only replaces cash and deposits in circulation, , but also the trend of transformation of financial assets with higher liquidity to financial assets with low liquidity. Therefore, electronic currency will cause tradingability The decrease in the proportion of financial assets and the increase in the proportion of investment in financial assets. To this end, we can use the ratio of the total amount of financial assets of a country to reflect the degree of monetary electronicization. As follows: // == place: EM is the degree of money electronic, FAT is the number of trading financial assets, FA is the total financial assets. The larger the indicator, the larger the indicator. The larger the proportion of the number of financial assets in Ming Dynasty, the higher the degree of electronics of the currency, and the smaller it means The lower the degree of electronicization of the currency. From the actual data of our country, the monetary electronic indicator is Start rapid , which is used in China to use electronic currencies since 1995, and then the electronic currency has been quickly developed and has a close level. . three, model calculation and its results 1 The "cash ratio" here refers to the ratio of cash to a broad currency in circulation, and the cash ratio of cash (cash and liquidity negative r The meaning of the ratio of debt) is not the same. 2 "Liquidity" mentioned here is not the same as the connotation of the concept of "liquidity" often used as a currency substitution. 6 (1) Unit root test before co -analysis is performed, the stability of the variable and the number of lagging periods must be tested. After the number of variables is used to take the number , use EVIEWS3. 0 Economic application software, adopt the ADF method inspection unit root, the test results are as follows: LV0 ～ i (C, 1,2) **, Lv1 ～ i (C, 1,1) **, LV2 ～ i (C , 1,1) **, LCR ~ I (C, 1,1) ***, LL ~ i (C, 1,1) **, LFE ~ i (C, 1,1)*, LEM ~ i (C, 1,1) ** Among them, the middle numbers in the brackets are single -order numbers, and the latter number is the optimal lag. Significant, ** means that the level of 5%is significant, and *** means that the level of 1%is significant. (2) Co -inspection First of all, we use 2LV as an example to compose relationship test. 1, use the ordinary minimum daily multiplication (OLS) about the circulation speed of currency TM2 tv2 pair TLV2 pairs of cash ratios to Number of LCR, the liquidity pair of currency supply LL, financial electronic couple LFE LFE LFE Returning to the number of LEMs with the electronic electronicization of currency, and calculating the residual estimation value is ∧ t. .08815.10386330.18291.02 = (-4.7199) 1.2526) (8.4015) (-2.0087) (1.1435) 2r = 0.9470 dw = 0.9480 .08815.10386.56330.18291.0 = ∧ 2, the estimation of the residual estimation is ∧ T horizontal values are performed in a single root test. The test conclusion is as follows: Table 1 unit root test LAG ADF statistics 1 -2.6161 -2.6889 *** r r r r r r r r r r r r r n-1.9592 ** -1.6246 * 2 -2. 4182 -2.6968 *** -1.9602 ** -1.6251* 3 -2.262 -2.7057 *** -1.9614 ** -1.6257 * 4 -2.1896 -2.7275 *** -1.9642 ** -1.6269 * n0 -2.9625 -2.6819 *** n7 -1.9583 ** -1.6242* Among them, *** indicates that at a level of 1%, ** means significant at 5%,*indicates that at a level of 10%, it is significant at 10%level. . The above table can be seen that the residual estimation value T sequence is i (0), which means that the residual estimation value T sequence is smooth. Currency circulation speed pair TLV2 and cash ratio pairs LCR, the liquidity pair of currency supply is ll, financial electronics In the same way, the consolidation regression equation of currency circulation speed V1, V0: .01952.16626.31618.04955.11 = (4.5166) (-0.0679) (3.3378) (0.6973) (1.5979) 2r = 0.5382 dw = 0.4286 .04378.17940.263759.4532.20 = (2.4423) (-5.4426) (7.6610) (0.7250) 2R = 0.9119 dw = 0.8816 (3) Create an error correction model 1. As mentioned earlier, if there is a coordination relationship between a set of variables, then the co -consolidation return can always be converted to error correction Model. Use the English two-step method to establish an error correction model .tm2's circulation speed tv2 pair TLV2 pairs Monetal electronic pairing LEM The stable sequence and residual estimation value of the residual estimation of the number of monetary is 1 T. Delete the item where the statistics value of the statistics in the above equation is not significant. r = 124037.01780.13968.40595. (0.8506) (0.3212) (0.9313) (-3.2584) 2r = 0.6530 dw = 2.1378 The two-step method of circulation speed v1, V0 to establish an error Amend the model. ∧ = 114037.02821.02452.41110. (2.1098) (0.6754) (2.2637) (-2.2478) 2R = 0.5283 dw = 2.1882 ∧ ∧ = 105498.04723.313085.266037. (5.7981) (1.8301) (6.3852) (-2.4350) 8 2R = 0.2238 dw = 0.6250 n2, using the one-step method of Wickens-Breusch In the end, the following regression equation: .08407.21358.03417.26324.12 = We we can get currency circulation speed v1, v0 with the one-step correction model of one-step error. . 02415.11524.02103.07861.11 = .07562.29173.08324.07452.20 = The on the three levels of currency circulation and cash ratios on V2, V1 and V0 , The liquidity of the currency supply , the influence of the degree of financial electronicization and the degree of electronics of the currency. Table 2. Table 2 Table 2 Organization of the influence of changes in the speed of the currency circulation of China's electronic currency The liquidity of the ratio CR currency supply L co-organizing ENGLE-GRANGER Two-step error repair
Wickens-block n coincidence ENGLE-GRANGER The two-step error repair positive wickens-breusch nv1 -0.1618 0.2103 3.6626 4.2452 0.1524 v0 -41.3759 0.8324 26.7940 26.3085 0.9173 Method error repair positive wickens-breusch nWickens -Breusch The first -step error correction v2 -1.8815 -1.1780 -2.8407 0.1275 -0. 2471 v1 -1.1952 0.2821 1.2415 0.2039 -0.1908 v0 -1.4378 31.4723 2.7562 0.4712 -0.3174 n Note: This table coefficient is the influence coefficient of the changes four. R n (1) Analysis of the factors of cash ratio (m0/m2) 1, model conclusion. It can be seen from Table 2 that through model calculations, its conclusion shows that in general, Chinese currency circulation r r The change rate of N speed is the relationship between the same direction at the same direction at the same direction of V0, V1, V2 levels. Since the reform and opening up, the development of China's electronic currency is relatively rapid. The alternative effect. 2, cause analysis. The reason why China's currency circulation speed is in V0, V1, V2 levels in the same The possible reason for the change in the direction of the direction is: first, the electronic currency pair The replacement effect of M0 is relatively obvious. On the one hand, it has significantly reduced the number of of M0. On the other hand, it also accelerates the conversion of M0 to M1 and M2. Under the common action of two aspects, it must However, the decrease in M0 and the increase in M1, M2 will increase the cash ratio, thereby reducing the speed of currency circulation; the second is 9 although the existing theoretical analysis believes that the replacement of electronic currencies on cash is inevitable It will accelerate the circulation of currency, which is very different from the actual situation of our country's . It is mainly because from the actual situation of the current development of electronic currency in China, China is still in the early stage of the development of sub -currency development, electronics, electronics, electronics The development of currency is relatively lagging compared to developed countries and emerging countries. The alternative acceleration effect of electronic goods coins is not obvious. On the contrary, the alternative conversion effect of electronic currencies is very obvious. The two alternative effects The existence not only does not speed up the currency circulation, but reduces the speed of currency circulation. Therefore, the electronic currency's cash replacement has not accelerated the overall currency circulation speed. Of course, it should be explained that the electronic currency pairs are right The replacement of traditional currency has no acceleration currency circulation, but at the current stage of the development of electronic currency in China, this replacement of electronic currencies is significantly smaller than its alternative transformation effect, thereby reducing it from the whole as a whole It has the speed of currency circulation, so the existence of this reflects the phased characteristics of China's electronic currency development, and also contains the incentives of electronic currency acceleration currency circulation . ) Analysis of the liquidity of currency supply (m1/m2) factors 1, model conclusion. It can be seen from Table 3 that the model calculation shows that in general In the relationship between V0, V1, V2 levels and currency supply, it can be seen from the actual data of our country, which can be seen that At 27.6%in 2000. At the same time, the circulation speed of V0, V1, and V2 in China also showed a significant decline in the circulation speed of V0, V1, and V2. Therefore, the conclusion of this model is completely in line with . 2, cause analysis. For a long time, most scholars believe that electronic currency is a kind of cargo with high current coins. Its replacement of traditional currency will inevitably speed up currency circulation. This is a misunderstanding of understanding. Real , the high liquidity of the electronic currency itself does not mean that its alternative to currency will speed up the currency circulation. electronic currency to M1 M1 M1 Instead of accelerating the circulation speed of electronic currency as a payment method, this is not the only factor that determines the high and low currency circulation speed. We know that currency circulation is R n, the factors affecting the speed of currency circulation In addition to the circulation speed of the currency payment process, it will also be affected by the public currency capacity of the public currency . According to the theory of Cainens' currency demand, he will hold the public's holding currency holding currency Motivation is divided into three types: trading motivation, prevention motivation and speculation motivation, and the currency demand formed by the first two types of motivation of currency holding is a trading currency demand. Currency demand. The existence of electronic currencies will affect these three motivations of currency holdings, which will affect the speed of currency circulation. Therefore, it is another factor affecting the speed of currency circulation, or even more important factor Because of , when analyzing the impact of electronic currency on the motivation of public currency, we should analyze from the two of people's holdings and currency structure. Electronic currency has the characteristics of high liquidity. Its existence will blur the currency level of traditional , so that the mutual conversion between currencies at different levels is easier. Therefore Electronic currency is mainly because it can satisfy liquidity preferences. The alternative of electronic currencies on traditional currencies only changes the form of goods , and does not mean that currency circulation has been accelerated. In addition, because people hold electronics The currency can also bring various conveniences to the holder, such as convenient payment, convenient storage and speculative, and the cost of this currency is significantly lower than holding traditional currencies. Will choose more electronic currency. In this way, it will increase people from to increase the time of the currency in the state of "static", thereby reducing the speed of currency circulation; from the from It's currency structure, due to the high liquidity of electronic currency and the characteristics of mutual transformation between each currency level, people It is necessary to hold a currency with high liquidity, holding its own The currency with weak liquidity but being easily transformed into high liquidity can also meet the requirements of high liquidity, and the electronic currency is just It can meet people’s demand for currency holdings. In addition, due to Facilities with weak liquidity can often bring the holders higher than . When holding high -yield financial assets will not affect the liquidity of holding currency, people have no reason not to make The choice of beauty. This motivation for currency holding will inevitably reduce the holdings of high liquidity currency M1. At the same time Currency, which leads to the increase in currency with high liquidity currency with high liquidity in total amount of currency, which increases less currency with low liquidity, that is, M1 transforms to M2. Therefore, the replacement of electronic currencies to traditional currencies from The currency time and currency holding structure have changed the motivation of people's currency, thereby reducing the speed of currency circulation. 10 From the actual situation of our country, with the rapid development of electronic currencies, it has cash on cash. The alternative of the deposit (M1) (M1) is increasingly obvious. Due to the relatively lagging development of my country's electronic currency in China, it can be said that it is still in the initial stage. At this stage The role must be significantly stronger than M2, so the electronic currency replacement of M1 will inevitably minus The total of less M1
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The impact of the development of electronic currency on currency circulation -based on coexistence empirical research
Zhou Guangyou
(Xi'an Jiaotong University School of Economics and Finance, Shaanxi, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061)
Abstract: Through statistical analysis, this article believes that the factors that the electronic currency affects the speed of currency circulation is mainly: cash ratio, "liquidity" of the supply of goods
The influence is
different. Further analysis found that Chinese electronic currency has two obvious alternative effects on traditional currency: one is the alternative
acceleration effect, the other is the alternative conversion effect. Make the electronic currency from speeding up the currency circulation.
has led to a decline in currency circulation, which is contrary to the conclusions of most scholars. Reasons for the decline in speed. At the same time, the electronic currency will inevitably reach the effectiveness of the monetary policy through the shadow of the speed of currency circulation. Therefore, the central bank must consider it when formulating a monetary policy.
T keywords: Electronic currency; currency circulation speed; monetary policy effect; co -consolidation
mixu classification number: Literature logo code: a article number:
Authors profile:
The first author: Zhou Guangyou (1971,55 -), Doctor of Economics, Research Direction: Monetary Financial Theory.
The published academic papers in core journals.
contact information:
Zhou Guangyou, the Department of International Trade (Receive)
Postcode: 451191
Tel: 0371-62436179 Mobile: (0)
email: gyzhou@tom (priority)
2 n electronic currency development pair pair Impact of currency circulation -based on coordinated empirical research
Zhou Guangyou
(Xi'an University of Communications University Economics and Finance, Shaanxi Xi'an, Xi'an 710061)
Abstract: Through statistical analysis, this article believes that electronic currency affects currency currency The main factors of circulation speed are: cash ratio, "flow
sex" of currency supply, the degree of financial electronicization, and the degree of monetary electronicization. Their impact on currency circulation speed is different. Further analysis found that medium
The national electronic currency has two obvious alternative effects on traditional currency: one is to replace the acceleration effect, and the other is the alternative conversion effect. The decline in currency circulation is declining, which is the opposite of the research knot of most scholars
. The conclusion of this article may be used to explain the reasons for the decline in the currency circulation rate in China in recent years. At the same time, electronic currency n The impact of circulation speed will inevitably reach the effectiveness of monetary policy. Therefore, the central bank must consider when formulating monetary policy.
keywords: electronic currency; currency circulation speed; monetary policy effect; cooperation; The emergence and development of electronic currencies not only changed people's living habits and payment methods, but also brought great challenges to traditional goods
. The rapid development of electronic currency, its replacement effect on the alternative of currency and deposit
is increasingly obvious. At the same time, the speed of currency circulation in China has shown a declining trend. The formulation and implementation of the formulation and implementation will have a large impact. Theoretically, because electronic currency has the characteristics of high flow
, its replacement of traditional currency will inevitably change the speed of currency circulation, and from many electronic currencies to develop rapidly countries faster countries, countries will develop rapidly countries faster countries.
It's actual data, since the emergence of electronic currencies, the speed of currency circulation has become extremely unstable, so it can be determined that
electronic currency will inevitably affect the speed of currency circulation. As for the degree of influence, there is a degree of impact. How big is the question we want to study
questions. Therefore, the research on this issue can not only explain the reasons for the changes in currency circulation from another perspective, but also the effectiveness of the currency policy of the high Central Bank of China It has important significance.
The structure arrangement below this article is: the first part is a review of the literature. On the basis of reviewing relevant literature at home and abroad, a brief review of the theoretical views related to
The theoretical hypothetical of this article. The second part is the empirical analysis process of the correlation between the electrical
The correlation of the currency circulation speed. The fourth part is the analysis of the model results. Finally Policy suggestions.
, Literature Summary
In according to the definition of the Basel Committee: Electronic currency refers to in the retail payment mechanism, through sales terminals, different
between electronic devices, and public networks on public networks (Such as Internet) The "storage value" and prepaid payment mechanism performed on the payment of payment. [1] Cash
refers to the number of currency circulation in a certain period of time (usually one year). The factors that affect the goods of the goods
The currency flow speed change have been studied.
In European Central Bank (1988) In the "Electronic Currency Report", it is believed that electronic currency will accelerate the speed of currency circulation; [2]
Some reports of the research of the International Clearance Bank (BIS) on the development and application of electronic currencies in various countries
introduced and their risks and regulatory research, which involved the speed of electronic currency circulation to varying degrees. The content of the
, and believes that the electronic currency will accelerate the currency circulation .Survey of Money (1996),
[3] for centiedS of the of Money (BIS, 1996
October of the year ), Risk for Banking and Money
(BCBS, March 1998), BIS published in May 2000 and November 2001, respectively, entitled Survey of , respectively R N Money's two reports, and then published Survey of
in Money and Internet and Mobile Payments. The relevant literature also believes that the electronic currency will affect the speed of currency circulation.
BERENTSEN, Kyklos (1998), which discusses the characteristics of electronic currency products, and proposes the use of electronic goods
coins will have the demand for currency demand for currency demand , The supply and currency circulation speed has an impact; [4] BerenSen (2002)
The discussion of electronic currency demand for currency and its process, currency circulation speed, reserve demand, central bank currency control
and currency The impact of policy transmission mechanism; [5] James A. Dorn (1996) believes that due to the existence of electronic currencies and its impact on the speed of currency circulation, the ability to control the basic currency of the central bank; [6] Susan M. Sullivan (2002)
believes that with the widespread use of electronic currencies, the control capabilities of the central bank's currency supply will be limited, the speed of currency circulation
accelerated Wait. [7]
From the perspective of domestic perspective, Wang Lubin (1999), when analyzing the impact of electronic currencies on currency demand, believes that the electronic currency replace
Speed. [8] Yin Long (2000) When analyzing the impact of electronic currency on monetary politics
The impact on the control of the target of the intermediary target, according to the traditional currency theory, the circulation speed of the currency is basically stable or
Regular changes are predictable. On this basis, we can determine a
control scale and degree of intermediary target that is consistent with the final goal. Electronic currency will make this theory no longer be established. The impact on currency circulation speed is randomly touched
, resulting in the accuracy of short -term currency circulation speed that is difficult to predict or predict. [9] Dong Xin, Zhou Hai (2001)
is analyzing electronic electronics in analysis of electronics When the currency demand for currency is believed that the alternative of electronic currency reduces the cash in circulation, speeds up the circulation speed of currency
, and reduces the number of transactions using cash. R n key factors of policy-the currency demand for central banks will be reduced. [10] Chen Yulu, Bian Weihong (2002) introduced electronic goods
The speed impact, believes that when the electronic currency is gradually replaced,
especially the popularization and development of online electronic currencies. The electronic currency of the Bit pattern uses light and electrical as a material carrier, and the limits of the speed of light at
are on the Internet. High -speed circulation has a strong randomness, which leads to the speed of short -term currency circulation It is difficult to pre -
The accuracy of measurement or prediction is affected. Fei Xue's equations need to be further tested. [11] Yang Luming, Chen Hongyan (2002) analyzed the target of monetary policy intermediaries in
In the effect of controlling, the development of electronic currency is increasingly declining the rationality and scientificity of the medium
. In terms of measurement, the calculation and measurement of the number of currencies is being subject to electronic goods
The decentralized issuance of currency, the rapid conversion between various levels of currency, the increase in alternativeness between financial assets, the speed of currency circulation
acceleration and other aspects. Coupled with the instability of currency circulation
The effects of fixed and currency multiplications, the controllability of the currency volume is facing the challenge. [12] Pu Chengyi (2002) combined with the actual situation of Chinese currency supply
, explore the actual discussion, explore the actual discussion, discuss the actual discussion, and explore. The impact of digital cash on the speed of currency supply and currency circulation. It is believed that the speed of currency circulation is in the early stage (mainly
v0). The total amount of M1
will lead to its short -term trend of its flow speed and the total trend of transformation to M0, which will lead to the short time retention time and the total amount tends to be reduced. VE) will turn to the upward trend, that is, the change characteristics of currency circulation speed changes are V -shaped
. [13] Zhang Hong, Chen Jie (2003) believes that electronic currency has accelerated the speed of currency circulation, so that the market economy Under conditions
The non -unique factor affecting the speed of currency circulation. [14] Tang Ping (2005) believes that the widespread use of electronic currencies makes it It is no longer obvious, and the average circulation speed of the currency continues to accelerate. [15]
, when some scholars at home and abroad analyze the influencing factors of currency circulation speed, although the electronic currency is not made
as an impact as an impact Factors are analyzed, but these analysis contains the impact of electronic currency on the speed of currency circulation. Ai
Hong De, Fan Nan (2002) obtained financial analysis of the influencing factors of Chinese currency circulation, and obtained financial financial analysis, and obtained financial finance. The degree of development
is one of the factor that affects the speed of China's currency circulation. [16] Liang Dapeng, Qi Zhongying (2004) adopted financial correlation and gold
The circulation speed of currency returns to study the relationship between China's financial innovation
The relationship between the new and currency circulation speed. The results show that China's financial innovation is positively correlated with the circulation speed of MO and ML,
but with M2's M2's The circulation speed is negative. [17]
In this shows that at home and abroad, at home and abroad, the impact of the influencing factors of currency circulation involves
The impact on the speed of currency circulation by electronic currency. However, in general, most scholars' impact on electronic currency on currency circulation
only staying on the theoretical analysis level, and believes that the electronic currency will Accelerate currency circulation, so as to increase
4
The difficulty in controlling the basic currency of the central bank. When empirical research on factors affecting the speed of currency circulation, there are few
considering the electronic currency pairs of electronic currency pairs. The impact of currency circulation speed, let alone the factors that affect the electronic currency as a factor affecting the speed of currency circulation
It included in the model, so the empirical research on the correlation between the circulation of electronic currency and currency is relatively lack of. It can be clearly seen in the conclusions of foreign scholars' research that the impact of electronic currency on the speed of currency circulation
is objective existence, and this impact should be more and more obvious with the rapid development of electronic currencies. As for the degree of influence of this
, it mainly depends on the depth and breadth of electronic currency replacement of traditional currencies and its mechanism for the action of currency circulation
. Most of the scholars at home and abroad agree that electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics, electronics. The existence and development of currency will inevitably accelerate the currency flow
. From the perspective of the development of China's electronic currency, especially since the development of China's electronic currency
, China The circulation speed has shown a trend of continuous decline for a long time, especially the circulation of broad currencies
has decreased significantly. Therefore, the view that electronic currency will inevitably accelerate the currency circulation speed and cannot explain the electronics
currency and N currency and N currency and N of China This is the same between the two of the currency circulation speed. Although there are many factors that affect the speed of currency circulation
, and the effects of these factors are different in different countries and different periods. Electronic currency is only one of its
, and electronic currencies are not the decisive factor affecting the speed of currency circulation, especially in the development of electronic currencies in the early stages of development in the early stage of development. However, on the one hand, the impact of electronic currency on currency circulation
has an increasingly obvious trend, and on the other hand, China's currency circulation speed has shown a trend of continuous decline for a long time. What kind of relationship is between circulation speed? Whether the development of electronic currencies is accelerating or decreased
The currency circulation speed. This is the starting point of this article. The extent and mechanism of currency on the speed of currency circulation, improve the effectiveness of the currency
, based on the existing research results, use the co -consolidated theoretical method and error correction model to establish -The stable relationship between electronic currency and currency circulation between 2000, and analyze the
factors that affect the speed of currency circulation, and then propose corresponding policy suggestions.
, model variable selection and sample data description
(1) Model selection
The analysis of the influence of electronic currency on the speed of Chinese currency circulation in this article is the theoretical method of consolidation, it
Basic content. In the analysis process of this article, the more important thing is the use of error correction
model use At present, the method of establishing an error correction model usually includes English two-step method and
wickens-breusch one step method. This article selects English two-step method to calculate the effect of currency circulation speed and its variables for
short-term shocks . Because the error correction of the two-step method of Engle-Granger contains short-term dynamic behavior, that is,
contains differences, so you can use it to consider the short-term impact. You can get a long -term static equation compared to the first -order single -time sequence, so use it to illustrate the influence of long -term currency flow
In the case, the coordination relationship illustrates the change relationship between the number group
, the long-term static equation illustrates the long-term relationship between them, and the two-step method of English Relationship, so the reflection of the relationship between the first two is more important.
(2) Selection of data indicators
The specific selection value of the influencing factors of currency circulation on the speed of currency circulation on the speed of Chinese currency circulation,
has been listed in the attached Table 1. From the situation of data collection at home and abroad, because monthly data and quarterly data are difficult
In this article uses annual indicators in the measurement model. To ensure the model to ensure the model The accuracy and scientificity, the number of variables
The selection should not be too much. At the same time, the compound linearity between the indicators cannot appear. When selecting the data index, select the
three representative three representatives. Different currency level indicators, the purpose is to better analyze the electronic currency conditions, the alternative effect of the electronic currency against
(M0/m2) .1 It shows that cash accounts for a broad currency ratio. The purpose of selecting this indicator is that with the popularization and application of
The currency has
has a strong liquidity, which makes the differences between M0, M1, M2 tending to blur, and the conversion between the levels of each currency is not only
between M0, M1, M2 The content and scope of the conversion, that is, the content and scope of the conversion, especially the transformation of the gold
-fusion assets (valuable securities and other financial investment products), that is, along M0, M1, M2, M3, ... , Mn's foot code order
The direction of elevated transformation. In the era of electronic currency, the cost of this reverse conversion is very small, and the time required is almost zero. Universal use, currency level form M0, m1, m2, m3, ..., mn will gradually exist
to increase the direction of the direction of the order number. This change will inevitably reduce the number of cash in circulation, cash cash, cash, The ratio of righteous currency decreases with the Guang
, thereby reducing the speed of currency circulation.
2, "liquidity" of currency supply (m1/m2) 2. It indicates that the proportion of narrow currency supply relative to the broad currency supply.
. When the value of M1/M2 is increasing That is to say, the proportion of currencies that will be used to buy and pay in broad
The proportion of currency supply is relatively increased, the liquidity of currency supply is increased, and the currency circulation is accelerated; To decrease, it indicates that the proportion of quasi currencies in the broader currency supply increases, the liquidity of currency supply has weakened, and the flow of goods
has decreased. Generally speaking, in the initial stage of the electronic currency exhibition, electronic currency pairs are paired The replacement of cash and current deposits is relatively obvious. Therefore, if the ratio of the "liquidity" indicator of our country decreases, it means that the alternative of electronic currencies on China's current
On the contrary, from the perspective of the actual data of our country, the ratio of
has decreased from 81.9%in 1978 to 27.6%.
3 in 2000. )/M2 to replace, the point of view is that the larger the proportion of gold in the financial system in a country, the higher the proportion of gold, the higher the degree of financial electronicization of the country. Under electronic currency conditions, due to electronic currency conditions n The degree of replacement weakens with the decline of liquidity, so the alternative effect of electronic currencies on M0 must also be greater than the alternative
generation of M2. In this way, the decrease of M0 will make the (M2-M0)/m2 of the (M2-M0)/m2. The ratio of the ratio has increased, and the degree of financial electronicization has increased. From the perspective of the actual data of our country's
, since the reform and opening up, especially since the mid -1990s, China's financial electronic levels have gradually increased. The first period is also the period of the rapid development of China's electronic currency.
4, the degree of money electronic (FA/M1). According to the different liquidity of financial assets, financial assets can be divided into transactions
Investment financial assets are two parts. Trading financial assets are those who can be used for direct payment
. It has a strong liquidity. According to the division of the currency level, it can be approximately regarded as a narrow currency ML. Investment gold
The financial assets that have a poor liquidity of assets, but it has the characteristics of income due to expiry, mainly includes quasi -currency, valid
securities and financial derivatives. Under electronic and currency conditions Because electronic currency not only replaces cash and deposits in circulation,
, but also the trend of transformation of financial assets with higher liquidity to financial assets with low liquidity. Therefore, electronic currency will cause
tradingability The decrease in the proportion of financial assets and the increase in the proportion of investment in financial assets. To this end, we can use the ratio of the total amount of financial assets of a country to reflect the degree of monetary electronicization. As follows:
// ==
place: EM is the degree of money electronic, FAT is the number of trading financial assets, FA is the total financial assets.
The larger the indicator, the larger the indicator. The larger the proportion of the number of financial assets in Ming Dynasty, the higher the degree of electronics of the currency, and the smaller it means
The lower the degree of electronicization of the currency. From the actual data of our country, the monetary electronic indicator is Start rapid
, which is used in China to use electronic currencies since 1995, and then the electronic currency has been quickly developed and has a close level. .
three, model calculation and its results
1 The "cash ratio" here refers to the ratio of cash to a broad currency in circulation, and the cash ratio of cash (cash and liquidity negative r
The meaning of the ratio of debt) is not the same.
2 "Liquidity" mentioned here is not the same as the connotation of the concept of "liquidity" often used as a currency substitution.
6
(1) Unit root test
before co -analysis is performed, the stability of the variable and the number of lagging periods must be tested. After the number of variables is used to take the number
, use EVIEWS3. 0 Economic application software, adopt the ADF method inspection unit root, the test results are as follows:
LV0 ～ i (C, 1,2) **, Lv1 ～ i (C, 1,1) **, LV2 ～ i (C , 1,1) **, LCR ~ I (C, 1,1) ***,
LL ~ i (C, 1,1) **, LFE ~ i (C, 1,1)*, LEM ~ i (C, 1,1) **
Among them, the middle numbers in the brackets are single -order numbers, and the latter number is the optimal lag. Significant, ** means that the level of 5%is significant, and *** means that the level of 1%is significant.
(2) Co -inspection
First of all, we use 2LV as an example to compose relationship test.
1, use the ordinary minimum daily multiplication (OLS) about the circulation speed of currency TM2 tv2 pair TLV2 pairs of cash ratios to
Number of LCR, the liquidity pair of currency supply LL, financial electronic couple LFE LFE LFE Returning to the number of LEMs with the electronic electronicization of currency,
and calculating the residual estimation value is ∧
t.
.08815.10386330.18291.02 =
(-4.7199) 1.2526) (8.4015) (-2.0087) (1.1435)
2r = 0.9470 dw = 0.9480
.08815.10386.56330.18291.0 = ∧
2, the estimation of the residual estimation is ∧
T horizontal values are performed in a single root test. The test conclusion is as follows:
Table 1 unit root test
LAG ADF statistics
1 -2.6161
-2.6889 *** r r r r r r r r r r r r r n-1.9592 **
-1.6246 *
2 -2. 4182
-2.6968 ***
-1.9602 **
-1.6251*
3 -2.262
-2.7057 ***
-1.9614 **
-1.6257 *
4 -2.1896
-2.7275 ***
-1.9642 **
-1.6269 * n0 -2.9625 -2.6819 *** n7
-1.9583 **
-1.6242*
Among them, *** indicates that at a level of 1%, ** means significant at 5%,*indicates that at a level of 10%, it is significant at 10%level. .
The above table can be seen that the residual estimation value
T sequence is i (0), which means that the residual estimation value
T sequence is smooth. Currency circulation speed pair TLV2 and cash ratio pairs LCR, the liquidity pair of currency supply is ll, financial electronics
In the same way, the consolidation regression equation of currency circulation speed V1, V0:
.01952.16626.31618.04955.11 =
(4.5166) (-0.0679) (3.3378) (0.6973) (1.5979)
2r = 0.5382 dw = 0.4286
.04378.17940.263759.4532.20 =
(2.4423) (-5.4426) (7.6610) (0.7250)
2R = 0.9119 dw = 0.8816
(3) Create an error correction model
1. As mentioned earlier, if there is a coordination relationship between a set of variables, then the co -consolidation return can always be converted to error correction
Model. Use the English two-step method to establish an error correction model .tm2's circulation speed tv2 pair TLV2 pairs
Monetal electronic pairing LEM
The stable sequence and residual estimation value of the residual estimation of the number of monetary is 1 T. Delete the item where the statistics value of the statistics in the above equation is not significant.
r
= 124037.01780.13968.40595.
(0.8506) (0.3212) (0.9313) (-3.2584)
2r = 0.6530 dw = 2.1378
The two-step method of circulation speed v1, V0 to establish an error Amend the model.
∧
= 114037.02821.02452.41110.
(2.1098) (0.6754) (2.2637) (-2.2478)
2R = 0.5283 dw = 2.1882
∧ ∧
= 105498.04723.313085.266037.
(5.7981) (1.8301) (6.3852) (-2.4350)
8
2R = 0.2238 dw = 0.6250 n2, using the one-step method of Wickens-Breusch In the end, the following regression equation:
.08407.21358.03417.26324.12 =
We we can get currency circulation speed v1, v0 with the one-step correction model of one-step error.
. 02415.11524.02103.07861.11 =
.07562.29173.08324.07452.20 =
The on the three levels of currency circulation and cash ratios on V2, V1 and V0 , The liquidity of the currency supply
, the influence of the degree of financial electronicization and the degree of electronics of the currency. Table 2.
Table 2 Table 2 Organization of the influence of changes in the speed of the currency circulation of China's electronic currency The liquidity of the ratio CR currency supply L
co-organizing
ENGLE-GRANGER
Two-step error repair
Wickens-block
n coincidence
ENGLE-GRANGER
The two-step error repair
positive
wickens-breusch
nv1 -0.1618 0.2103 3.6626 4.2452 0.1524
v0 -41.3759 0.8324 26.7940 26.3085 0.9173
Method error repair
positive
wickens-breusch
nWickens -Breusch
The first -step error correction
v2 -1.8815 -1.1780 -2.8407 0.1275 -0. 2471
v1 -1.1952 0.2821 1.2415 0.2039 -0.1908
v0 -1.4378 31.4723 2.7562 0.4712 -0.3174 n Note: This table coefficient is the influence coefficient of the changes
four. R n (1) Analysis of the factors of cash ratio (m0/m2)
1, model conclusion. It can be seen from Table 2 that through model calculations, its conclusion shows that in general, Chinese currency circulation r r The change rate of N speed is the relationship between the same direction at the same direction at the same direction of V0, V1, V2 levels. Since the reform and opening up, the development of China's electronic currency is relatively rapid. The alternative effect.
2, cause analysis. The reason why China's currency circulation speed is in V0, V1, V2 levels in the same
The possible reason for the change in the direction of the direction is: first, the electronic currency pair The replacement effect of M0 is relatively obvious. On the one hand, it has significantly reduced the number of
of M0. On the other hand, it also accelerates the conversion of M0 to M1 and M2. Under the common action of two aspects, it must
However, the decrease in M0 and the increase in M1, M2 will increase the cash ratio, thereby reducing the speed of currency circulation; the second is
9
although the existing theoretical analysis believes that the replacement of electronic currencies on cash is inevitable It will accelerate the circulation of currency, which is very different from the actual situation of our country's
. It is mainly because from the actual situation of the current development of electronic currency in China, China is still in the early stage of the development of sub -currency development, electronics, electronics, electronics The development of currency is relatively lagging compared to developed countries and emerging countries. The alternative acceleration effect of electronic goods
coins is not obvious. On the contrary, the alternative conversion effect of electronic currencies is very obvious. The two alternative effects
The existence not only does not speed up the currency circulation, but reduces the speed of currency circulation. Therefore, the electronic currency's cash replacement
has not accelerated the overall currency circulation speed. Of course, it should be explained that the electronic currency pairs are right The replacement of traditional currency
has no acceleration currency circulation, but at the current stage of the development of electronic currency in China, this replacement of electronic currencies is significantly smaller than its alternative transformation effect, thereby reducing it from the whole as a whole It has the speed of currency circulation, so the existence of this
reflects the phased characteristics of China's electronic currency development, and also contains the incentives of electronic currency acceleration currency circulation
. ) Analysis of the liquidity of currency supply (m1/m2) factors
1, model conclusion. It can be seen from Table 3 that the model calculation shows that in general In the relationship between V0, V1, V2 levels and currency supply, it can be seen from the actual data of our country, which can be seen that
At 27.6%in 2000. At the same time, the circulation speed of V0, V1, and V2 in China also showed a significant decline in the circulation speed of V0, V1, and V2. Therefore, the conclusion of this model is completely in line with
.
2, cause analysis. For a long time, most scholars believe that electronic currency is a kind of cargo with high current
coins. Its replacement of traditional currency will inevitably speed up currency circulation. This is a misunderstanding of understanding. Real
, the high liquidity of the electronic currency itself does not mean that its alternative to currency will speed up the currency circulation.
electronic currency to M1 M1 M1 Instead of accelerating the circulation speed of electronic currency as a payment method, this is not the only factor that determines the high and low currency circulation speed. We know that currency circulation is R n, the factors affecting the speed of currency circulation In addition to the circulation speed of the currency payment process, it will also be affected by the public currency capacity of the public currency
. According to the theory of Cainens' currency demand, he will hold the public's holding currency holding currency Motivation is divided into three types: trading motivation, prevention motivation and
speculation motivation, and the currency demand formed by the first two types of motivation of currency holding is a trading currency demand. Currency demand. The existence of electronic currencies will affect these three motivations of currency holdings, which will affect the speed of currency circulation. Therefore, it is another factor affecting the speed of currency circulation, or even more important factor Because of
, when analyzing the impact of electronic currency on the motivation of public currency, we should analyze from the two
of people's holdings and currency structure. Electronic currency has the characteristics of high liquidity. Its existence will blur the currency level of traditional
, so that the mutual conversion between currencies at different levels is easier. Therefore Electronic currency is mainly because it can satisfy liquidity preferences. The alternative of electronic currencies on traditional currencies only changes the form of goods
, and does not mean that currency circulation has been accelerated. In addition, because people hold electronics The currency can also bring various conveniences to the holder, such as convenient payment, convenient storage and speculative, and the cost of this currency is significantly lower than
holding traditional currencies. Will choose more electronic currency. In this way, it will increase people from
to increase the time of the currency in the state of "static", thereby reducing the speed of currency circulation; from the from
It's currency structure, due to the high liquidity of electronic currency and the characteristics of mutual transformation between each currency level, people
It is necessary to hold a currency with high liquidity, holding its own
The currency with weak liquidity but being easily transformed into high liquidity can also meet the requirements of high liquidity, and the electronic currency is just
It can meet people’s demand for currency holdings. In addition, due to Facilities with weak liquidity can often bring the holders higher than
. When holding high -yield financial assets will not affect the liquidity of holding currency, people have no reason not to make
The choice of beauty. This motivation for currency holding will inevitably reduce the holdings of high liquidity currency M1. At the same time Currency, which leads to the increase in currency with high liquidity currency with high liquidity in total amount of currency, which increases less currency with low liquidity, that is, M1 transforms to M2. Therefore, the replacement of electronic currencies to traditional currencies from
The currency time and currency holding structure have changed the motivation of people's currency, thereby reducing the speed of currency circulation.
10
From the actual situation of our country, with the rapid development of electronic currencies, it has cash on cash. The alternative of the deposit (M1) (M1) is increasingly obvious. Due to the relatively lagging development of my country's electronic currency in China, it can be said that it is still in the initial stage. At this
stage The role must be significantly stronger than M2, so the electronic currency replacement of M1 will inevitably minus
The total of less M1