Last week, after a seven -month trade survey of 301 clauses, the United States plans to impose a 25%tariff from about 1,300 Chinese goods. China has reached a attack on Trump's first $ 50 billion tariffs. In response to US $ 30 billion tariffs on American products, the Sino -US trade war sword is open.
This is not too big to see the lively. One stone hit a thousand layers of waves. The brick households actively contributed suggestions and suggestions. Some people say that this is a new cold war. We believe that this view is completely unprecedented, and the trade between China and the United States has been connected for a long time, which together constitute a RMB international currency system, which is far from the completely opposed Cold War thinking. This impulse thinking is difficult to provide insights on the future development of the country's economy.
The opposite point of view believes that Trump is just to create potential for medium -term elections. It is not good to give up free trade, and it is not good for anyone to abandon free trade. This view is too optimistic, and the American elite world has long been dissatisfied with China ’s benefits of gaining more from free trade. The famous investor Munger said in "Poor Charlie Treasure" that Li Jiatu's trade comparative advantage is too one -sided, and it has not considered China's economic development faster in free trade, and it will even surpass the United States, just like the four Asian dragons, and the early years of the early years, and the early years. Japan.
We believe that this trade war may be an iconic incident of international trade, and it cannot be simply stayed in the discussion of trade issues. At the strategic level, from the perspective of the international monetary system, the issue of ultimate trade will be reflected in the currency system. Historically, an effective and stable international monetary system is an extremely important link in the international economy. Judging from many signs, the "China stage" of the so -called new Bretton Forest system has begun, and we must actively adapt to this process.
Since the emergence of the Bretton Forest system after World War II, the global monetary system has continued to evolve, but it has always maintained a single dynamic structure, the center-peripheral structure. The United States has always been a central country, and Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia, and China have successively become peripheral countries. The purpose of this system is mainly used to solve the problem of the huge and lack of capital in the country's country into the global industrial economy. From the following we can see that this system has been in a state of activity or dormancy for nearly 70 years.
The emergence of the Bretton Forest system
The silver, gold -based, golden exchange standard, and Bretton Forest system in history are different institutional arrangements of the international currency system. In the Great Depression of the World Economy in the 1930s, the exchange rate policy of "neighbors" in various countries prompted countries to recognize the necessity and importance of international cooperation, and hope to establish a new system that can coordinate and manage global trade. In July 1944, the economic special envoy of 44 countries or governments gathered in the Bretton Forest in Hampshire, USA, and established a new international monetary system. There are two constraints of the Bretton Forest System to the international currency issuance country-the US dollar issuance: one is to link directly to the gold, while the currency of various countries is linked to the US dollar; the second is that the international currency issuer promises to pay $ 35 a $ 35 a one The official price of ounces is free to exchange gold.
In the 1950s and 1960s, the United States was the central country, and the capital flow was not controlled. The commodity market was also open, such as the famous Marshall plan. In the war in Europe and Japan, capital has been destroyed, which constitutes peripheral countries. It takes measures to underestimate currency to control capital flow and trade and accumulate reserves. As a financial intermediary, the financial intermediary enters the US dollar credit to the peripheral national financial system. Generally, the external direct investment (FDI) conducts long -term lending on the peripheral countries. Net savings are flowing from the centers of currency credit and capital with the lack of capital credit and capital.
. The so -called Trifen's problem in the Bretton Forest System has internal design. In 1960, Robert Trifen described a paradox in its book "Gold and the US dollar crisis -the future of free exchange": Although the US dollar has achieved the status of international core currencies, in order to develop international trade, it is necessary to develop international trade. Using the US dollar as a settlement and reserve currency, this will lead to the continuous precipitation of currencies flowing out of the United States overseas, and a long -term trade deficit will occur for the United States. The premise of the US dollar as the core of the international currency is to maintain the stability and firmness of the US dollar currency. It is also required that the United States must be a long -term trade surplus country, and these two requirements contradict each other. In other words, it is necessary to run (the US trade deficit), and the horse does not eat grass (the US dollar is strong).
In Europe, after the development of Europe, capital has been rebuilt, and gradually evolved to the central country. There is no need to implement the strategy of fixed exchange rates and capital control. Trifen's problem is getting worse. When the depreciation of the US dollar is inevitable, a large amount of capital flows into countries like Germany. In the face of the conflict between the price stability and the fixed exchange rate, these countries tend to give priority to domestic goals in the face of conflict between the price stability and fixed exchange rate. On May 5, 1971, Germany Bank had more than $ 1 billion of funds within an hour at the beginning of the transaction. It had to suspend a large -scale US dollar purchase and allowed Germany to float. Several other European countries subsequently allowed the local currency to float. Three months later, on August 15th, President Nixon announced the closure of the golden window, that is, the "Nixon impact", which was concluded by the era of US dollars and gold with fixed prices and unlimited exchanges to "anchor". The international monetary system enters the Jamaican system (floating exchange rate system).
In fact, the implementation of the free floating exchange rate and the opening of the capital market in Europe are just a transition of the Bretton Forest system, because new peripheral countries have continued to appear during the subsequent period. Therefore, the Bretton Forest system did not die, but it was re -loaded after a period of time.
The first is Japan. In 1985, the five -nation group (the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and Japan) reached a square agreement after negotiations. Since the 1990s, Southeast Asian countries (regions) have gradually become new peripheral countries (regions). As a financial intermediary, the United States has entered the US dollar credit to East Asia to build East Asia's capital, develop and improve the financial system of East Asia. Causes weak domestic demand, net savings and long -term huge trade surplus in Southeast Asian countries. The United States gets low consumer prices, negative savings and rapidly increasing trade deficits. Relying on the Southeast Asian Central Bank to increase foreign exchange reserves, and then use surplus to purchase U.S. assets, so that funds can return to the US economy, this system can be maintained (Figure 1).
1990, with the formation of the euro zone and the internationalization of its currency, the euro entered the central position. Due to the stagnation of the internationalization of the yen, Japan is still in the difficult conversion stage of the periphery to the center. After Southeast Asian countries experienced the financial turmoil in 1998, entering the central position is even more out of life.
The new Bretton Forest System
2001 After the Chinese country joined the WTO in the middle of the WTO, it became a member of the peripheral. The "China stage" of the system, or the RMB -USD, Du Li et al. (2003) called the new Bretton Forest system. The global monetary system is supported by export -driven growth strategies adopted by China and Southeast Asian countries.
The stability and sustainability of the new system had been discussed. The new Bretton Forest system has been questioned. There are two major problems.
Question 1, the new system is a hidden arrangement, lacking an institutional guarantee like the Bretton forest system. The actual value of the United States for the US dollar reserves does not provide any promise promises. The United States can implement domestic policies arbitrarily, regardless of the impact of these policies on the value of the US dollar. The depreciation of the US dollar will bring huge losses to the US dollar reserve.
This problem II, the purchase of US dollar assets to maintain US dollar assets to maintain US interest rates at a lower level, which will lead to employment growth in US consumption and "interest rate sensitive departments". In order to reduce the current project deficit in the United States, tightening measures are unacceptable to the United States. Therefore, the growing US trade deficit and the RMB -the US dollar standard will stimulate domestic trade protectionism.
. Although the new system has been running for a long time, the problems about these two points constantly appear. For example, before 2009, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed to reform the international currency system, which is to target the problem, and is called "Mr. RMB" for accelerating the internationalization of the RMB. The deterioration of the US trade balance and the weakness of the US dollar have continued to emerge, such as this Sino -US trade war in front of it.
2008 The crisis of the financial integration and its subsequent dedication to the Firming is often recognized as a label aspiration for the end of the new Bretton Forestry Department. However, there was no end in the future. There are two reasons. One is that the financial crisis that broke out in 2008 was not caused by the sudden suspension of US capital flows; second, the US dollar exchange rate and interest rates did not rise significantly.
A core countries of the center -peripheral structure, Sino -US trade surplus is still growing (Figure 2). The 2008 financial crisis was not the "China stage" of the Bretton Forest system and the end of the RMB -USD.
It enter the ranks of central countries
, from the perspective of trends, China should join the central group composed of the United States and the European Union. End within a few years. However, this process does not happen naturally. As long as you see this trend, there is a clear direction to deal with the current Sino -US trade war.
First, China should learn the successful experience of becoming a central group, while Japan and Southeast Asia are still in the periphery. Mainly the problem of floating exchange rates, opening up capital markets, and internationalization of RMB.
Secondly, the financial market reform process actively responds to domestic financial stability. The New Bretton Forest system has been operating for more than ten years. China's foreign exchange reserves have grown far exceeding regular project surplus growth, and it is difficult to sell. Bringing excessive increase in currency supply and the vulnerability of the financial system. In the reform of the regulatory system, the CBRC and the CIRC were merged and the central bank's leadership was a countermeasure.
Third, the export -oriented strategy has changed to consumer -driven growth and reforms the labor market, which is the adjustment of the economic structure. See our report "Entering the New Era of Consumer Society".
Fourth, activate the next neighboring country or region to become peripheral countries. Some views believe that India has imitated China's development model in many ways and adopts an export -oriented development strategy. The Bretton Forest System "will enter the" Indian stage ". China's autonomous" Belt and Road "is also a major direction.
will take the opportunity of this Sino -US trade war to seize the key to exit the Chinese stage. To click, China will begin to enter the ranks of the central country, and this change does not require the financial crisis at the cost.
Welcome to scan the code to enter the group for discussion
The Bretton Forest System The Bretton Woods System refers to the international monetary system centered on the US dollar after World War II.
In July 1944, representatives of major Western countries established the system at the UN International Monetary Financial Conference. Because the meeting was held in the Bretton Forest, New Hampshire, the United States, it was called "Brey Dun Forest System. The General Agreement of GuanTong, as a supplement to the Bretton Forest Conference in 1944, and various agreements passed by the Bretton Forest Conference, collectively referred to as the "Bretton Forest System", that is, foreign exchange liberalization, capital liberalization and trade liberalization are the main contents. The multilateral economic system constitutes the core content of the capitalist group.
The establishment of the Bretton Forest system has promoted the recovery and development of post -war capitalist world economy. Due to the frequent outbreak of the US dollar crisis and the US economic crisis, and the contradictory of the system itself, the system was proclaimed by the Nixon administration on August 15, 1971.
Chinese name Bretton forest currency system Foreign name Bretton woods system
White This time July 1944 fast navigation system introduction n core content n n n n n R n The meeting was held
playing the role
system system
It operation conditions
R N Failing Revelation
The related books The background In the 20 years between the two world wars, the international currency system split into several competitive currency groups, countries from all countries, countries The currency competes for depreciation and turbulent. In late World War, the US and British governments, for their own interests, conceived and designed the international monetary system after the war, proposed the "White Plan" and "Kanes Plan". The "White Plan" and "Keynes Plan" are also the purpose of establishing international financial institutions, stable exchange rates, expanding international trade, and promoting the development of the world economy, but the operation methods are different. As the United States appeared in the capitalist world alliance position after the World Economic Crisis and the Second World War, the international status of the US dollar was stable due to the strength of its international gold reserves. Fund experts jointly declare. " The key figures to establish the Bretton Forest system are Harry White, assistant minister of the former US Department of Finance. With the status of three -quarters of the world's gold reserves and strong military strength with the post -war United States, he supports the proposal to strengthen the US dollar status. Kanes, the head of the British delegation and the master of economics, the "White Plan" became the blueprint for the final resolution of the Bretton Forest Conference.
The establishment of the Bretton Forest System The introduction of the system The Bretton Forest system is a gold exchange system based on the US dollar and gold. The basic content of the center's international currency system includes the U.S. dollar and gold -linked, and the currency of the members of the international currency fund member state and the US dollar maintain a fixed exchange rate (the fixed exchange rate system is implemented). The operation of the Bretton forest currency system is closely related to the reputation and status of the dollar. Core content "The Bretton Forest System" has established two international financial institutions of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The former is responsible for providing short -term funds to member states to ensure the stability of the international monetary system; the latter provides medium and long -term credit to promote the economic recovery of member states. The main contents of the "Bretton Forest System" include the following points: First, the dollar is linked to gold. Countries confirmed that the US $ 35 of the United States in January 1944, the gold official price of $ 35 per ounce, the gold content of each dollar was 0.888671 grams of gold. Governments or central banks can exchange gold to the United States at an official price for US dollars. In order to make the official price of gold from being impacted by the price of the free market, governments need to cooperate with the US government to maintain this golden official price in the international financial market.
The Bretton Forest system Secondly, the currency of other countries is linked to the US dollar. The government of other countries stipulates the gold content of their respective currencies and determines the exchange rate of the US dollar through the proportion of gold content. third, the adjustable fixed exchange rate is implemented. The International Monetary Fund Agreement stipulates that the exchange rate of currencies to the US dollar can only fluctuate within 1%of the statutory exchange rate. If the market exchange rate exceeds 1%of the statutory exchange rate, governments of various countries have the obligation to intervene in the foreign exchange market to maintain the stability of the exchange rate. If the legal exchange rate of the member states is more than 10%, it must be approved by the International Monetary Fund. In December 1971, the transformation of this periodic exchange rate was expanded to a range of 2.25%up and down, and the standard of "parity" was determined from gold to a special withdrawal right. The exchange rate system of the Bretton Forest System is called "adjustable nailing exchange rate system".
Active impact: 1. The formation of the Bretton Forest system temporarily ended the chaos in the pre -war currency financial field, and maintained the normal operation of the post -war world currency system. 2. The formation of the Bretton forest system has expanded world trade under relatively stable conditions. 3. After the formation of the Bretton forest system, the activities of the fund organization and the World Bank played a certain positive role in the recovery and development of the world economy. On the one hand, short -term loans provided by the Fund Organization temporarily eased the income and expenditure crisis of many countries after the war, and also promoted steady liberalization in the payment method. The loan business of the fund organization increased rapidly. Pull the third world. On the other hand, the long -term loans and investment provided and organized by the World Bank to varying degrees of investment in the recovery and development of economy after the wartime recovery and development of member states. In addition, fund organizations and World Banks provide technical assistance and establishing research materials for international economic currencies and exchange information and information on the recovery and development of the world economy. 4. The formation of the Bretton Forest system helps internationalization of production and capital. Due to the relatively stable exchange rate, the exchange rate risk caused by international capital flows is conducive to the input and output of international capital. At the same time, it has also created a good environment for international financing, helping the financial industry and the development of international financial markets, and also created good conditions for the internationalization of multinational companies.
The influence of negative: 1. Because the Bretton forest currency system is centered on the US dollar international currency system, it is conducive to the US's special status to manipulate international financial activities. 2. The fixed exchange rate is conducive to the output of inflation in the United States, exacerbating worldwide inflation, and not conducive to the use of exchange rates to adjust the balance of income and expenditure.
Active impact: 1. The formation of the Bretton Forest system temporarily ended the chaos in the pre -war currency financial field, and maintained the normal operation of the post -war world currency system. 2. The formation of the Bretton forest system has expanded world trade under relatively stable conditions. 3. After the formation of the Bretton forest system, the activities of the fund organization and the World Bank played a certain positive role in the recovery and development of the world economy. On the one hand, short -term loans provided by the Fund Organization temporarily eased the income and expenditure crisis of many countries after the war, and also promoted steady liberalization in the payment method. The loan business of the fund organization increased rapidly. Pull the third world. On the other hand, the long -term loans and investment provided and organized by the World Bank to varying degrees of investment in the recovery and development of economy after the wartime recovery and development of member states. In addition, fund organizations and World Banks provide technical assistance and establishing research materials for international economic currencies and exchange information and information on the recovery and development of the world economy. 4. The formation of the Bretton Forest system helps internationalization of production and capital. Due to the relatively stable exchange rate, the exchange rate risk caused by international capital flows is conducive to the input and output of international capital. At the same time, it has also created a good environment for international financing, helping the financial industry and the development of international financial markets, and also created good conditions for the internationalization of multinational companies.
The influence of negative: 1. Because the Bretton forest currency system is centered on the US dollar international currency system, it is conducive to the US's special status to manipulate international financial activities. 2. The fixed exchange rate is conducive to the output of inflation in the United States, exacerbating worldwide inflation, and not conducive to the use of exchange rates to adjust the balance of income and expenditure.
Swordsmanship of the trade war
Last week, after a seven -month trade survey of 301 clauses, the United States plans to impose a 25%tariff from about 1,300 Chinese goods. China has reached a attack on Trump's first $ 50 billion tariffs. In response to US $ 30 billion tariffs on American products, the Sino -US trade war sword is open.
This is not too big to see the lively. One stone hit a thousand layers of waves. The brick households actively contributed suggestions and suggestions. Some people say that this is a new cold war. We believe that this view is completely unprecedented, and the trade between China and the United States has been connected for a long time, which together constitute a RMB international currency system, which is far from the completely opposed Cold War thinking. This impulse thinking is difficult to provide insights on the future development of the country's economy.
The opposite point of view believes that Trump is just to create potential for medium -term elections. It is not good to give up free trade, and it is not good for anyone to abandon free trade. This view is too optimistic, and the American elite world has long been dissatisfied with China ’s benefits of gaining more from free trade. The famous investor Munger said in "Poor Charlie Treasure" that Li Jiatu's trade comparative advantage is too one -sided, and it has not considered China's economic development faster in free trade, and it will even surpass the United States, just like the four Asian dragons, and the early years of the early years, and the early years. Japan.
We believe that this trade war may be an iconic incident of international trade, and it cannot be simply stayed in the discussion of trade issues. At the strategic level, from the perspective of the international monetary system, the issue of ultimate trade will be reflected in the currency system. Historically, an effective and stable international monetary system is an extremely important link in the international economy. Judging from many signs, the "China stage" of the so -called new Bretton Forest system has begun, and we must actively adapt to this process.
Since the emergence of the Bretton Forest system after World War II, the global monetary system has continued to evolve, but it has always maintained a single dynamic structure, the center-peripheral structure. The United States has always been a central country, and Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia, and China have successively become peripheral countries. The purpose of this system is mainly used to solve the problem of the huge and lack of capital in the country's country into the global industrial economy. From the following we can see that this system has been in a state of activity or dormancy for nearly 70 years.
The emergence of the Bretton Forest system
The silver, gold -based, golden exchange standard, and Bretton Forest system in history are different institutional arrangements of the international currency system. In the Great Depression of the World Economy in the 1930s, the exchange rate policy of "neighbors" in various countries prompted countries to recognize the necessity and importance of international cooperation, and hope to establish a new system that can coordinate and manage global trade. In July 1944, the economic special envoy of 44 countries or governments gathered in the Bretton Forest in Hampshire, USA, and established a new international monetary system. There are two constraints of the Bretton Forest System to the international currency issuance country-the US dollar issuance: one is to link directly to the gold, while the currency of various countries is linked to the US dollar; the second is that the international currency issuer promises to pay $ 35 a $ 35 a one The official price of ounces is free to exchange gold.
In the 1950s and 1960s, the United States was the central country, and the capital flow was not controlled. The commodity market was also open, such as the famous Marshall plan. In the war in Europe and Japan, capital has been destroyed, which constitutes peripheral countries. It takes measures to underestimate currency to control capital flow and trade and accumulate reserves. As a financial intermediary, the financial intermediary enters the US dollar credit to the peripheral national financial system. Generally, the external direct investment (FDI) conducts long -term lending on the peripheral countries. Net savings are flowing from the centers of currency credit and capital with the lack of capital credit and capital.
. The so -called Trifen's problem in the Bretton Forest System has internal design. In 1960, Robert Trifen described a paradox in its book "Gold and the US dollar crisis -the future of free exchange": Although the US dollar has achieved the status of international core currencies, in order to develop international trade, it is necessary to develop international trade. Using the US dollar as a settlement and reserve currency, this will lead to the continuous precipitation of currencies flowing out of the United States overseas, and a long -term trade deficit will occur for the United States. The premise of the US dollar as the core of the international currency is to maintain the stability and firmness of the US dollar currency. It is also required that the United States must be a long -term trade surplus country, and these two requirements contradict each other. In other words, it is necessary to run (the US trade deficit), and the horse does not eat grass (the US dollar is strong).
In Europe, after the development of Europe, capital has been rebuilt, and gradually evolved to the central country. There is no need to implement the strategy of fixed exchange rates and capital control. Trifen's problem is getting worse. When the depreciation of the US dollar is inevitable, a large amount of capital flows into countries like Germany. In the face of the conflict between the price stability and the fixed exchange rate, these countries tend to give priority to domestic goals in the face of conflict between the price stability and fixed exchange rate. On May 5, 1971, Germany Bank had more than $ 1 billion of funds within an hour at the beginning of the transaction. It had to suspend a large -scale US dollar purchase and allowed Germany to float. Several other European countries subsequently allowed the local currency to float. Three months later, on August 15th, President Nixon announced the closure of the golden window, that is, the "Nixon impact", which was concluded by the era of US dollars and gold with fixed prices and unlimited exchanges to "anchor". The international monetary system enters the Jamaican system (floating exchange rate system).
In fact, the implementation of the free floating exchange rate and the opening of the capital market in Europe are just a transition of the Bretton Forest system, because new peripheral countries have continued to appear during the subsequent period. Therefore, the Bretton Forest system did not die, but it was re -loaded after a period of time.
The first is Japan. In 1985, the five -nation group (the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and Japan) reached a square agreement after negotiations. Since the 1990s, Southeast Asian countries (regions) have gradually become new peripheral countries (regions). As a financial intermediary, the United States has entered the US dollar credit to East Asia to build East Asia's capital, develop and improve the financial system of East Asia. Causes weak domestic demand, net savings and long -term huge trade surplus in Southeast Asian countries. The United States gets low consumer prices, negative savings and rapidly increasing trade deficits. Relying on the Southeast Asian Central Bank to increase foreign exchange reserves, and then use surplus to purchase U.S. assets, so that funds can return to the US economy, this system can be maintained (Figure 1).
1990, with the formation of the euro zone and the internationalization of its currency, the euro entered the central position. Due to the stagnation of the internationalization of the yen, Japan is still in the difficult conversion stage of the periphery to the center. After Southeast Asian countries experienced the financial turmoil in 1998, entering the central position is even more out of life.
The new Bretton Forest System
2001 After the Chinese country joined the WTO in the middle of the WTO, it became a member of the peripheral. The "China stage" of the system, or the RMB -USD, Du Li et al. (2003) called the new Bretton Forest system. The global monetary system is supported by export -driven growth strategies adopted by China and Southeast Asian countries.
The stability and sustainability of the new system had been discussed. The new Bretton Forest system has been questioned. There are two major problems.
Question 1, the new system is a hidden arrangement, lacking an institutional guarantee like the Bretton forest system. The actual value of the United States for the US dollar reserves does not provide any promise promises. The United States can implement domestic policies arbitrarily, regardless of the impact of these policies on the value of the US dollar. The depreciation of the US dollar will bring huge losses to the US dollar reserve.
This problem II, the purchase of US dollar assets to maintain US dollar assets to maintain US interest rates at a lower level, which will lead to employment growth in US consumption and "interest rate sensitive departments". In order to reduce the current project deficit in the United States, tightening measures are unacceptable to the United States. Therefore, the growing US trade deficit and the RMB -the US dollar standard will stimulate domestic trade protectionism.
. Although the new system has been running for a long time, the problems about these two points constantly appear. For example, before 2009, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed to reform the international currency system, which is to target the problem, and is called "Mr. RMB" for accelerating the internationalization of the RMB. The deterioration of the US trade balance and the weakness of the US dollar have continued to emerge, such as this Sino -US trade war in front of it.
2008 The crisis of the financial integration and its subsequent dedication to the Firming is often recognized as a label aspiration for the end of the new Bretton Forestry Department. However, there was no end in the future. There are two reasons. One is that the financial crisis that broke out in 2008 was not caused by the sudden suspension of US capital flows; second, the US dollar exchange rate and interest rates did not rise significantly.
A core countries of the center -peripheral structure, Sino -US trade surplus is still growing (Figure 2). The 2008 financial crisis was not the "China stage" of the Bretton Forest system and the end of the RMB -USD.
It enter the ranks of central countries
, from the perspective of trends, China should join the central group composed of the United States and the European Union. End within a few years. However, this process does not happen naturally. As long as you see this trend, there is a clear direction to deal with the current Sino -US trade war.
First, China should learn the successful experience of becoming a central group, while Japan and Southeast Asia are still in the periphery. Mainly the problem of floating exchange rates, opening up capital markets, and internationalization of RMB.
Secondly, the financial market reform process actively responds to domestic financial stability. The New Bretton Forest system has been operating for more than ten years. China's foreign exchange reserves have grown far exceeding regular project surplus growth, and it is difficult to sell. Bringing excessive increase in currency supply and the vulnerability of the financial system. In the reform of the regulatory system, the CBRC and the CIRC were merged and the central bank's leadership was a countermeasure.
Third, the export -oriented strategy has changed to consumer -driven growth and reforms the labor market, which is the adjustment of the economic structure. See our report "Entering the New Era of Consumer Society".
Fourth, activate the next neighboring country or region to become peripheral countries. Some views believe that India has imitated China's development model in many ways and adopts an export -oriented development strategy. The Bretton Forest System "will enter the" Indian stage ". China's autonomous" Belt and Road "is also a major direction.
will take the opportunity of this Sino -US trade war to seize the key to exit the Chinese stage. To click, China will begin to enter the ranks of the central country, and this change does not require the financial crisis at the cost.
Welcome to scan the code to enter the group for discussion
The Bretton Forest System
The Bretton Woods System refers to the international monetary system centered on the US dollar after World War II.
In July 1944, representatives of major Western countries established the system at the UN International Monetary Financial Conference. Because the meeting was held in the Bretton Forest, New Hampshire, the United States, it was called "Brey Dun Forest System. The General Agreement of GuanTong, as a supplement to the Bretton Forest Conference in 1944, and various agreements passed by the Bretton Forest Conference, collectively referred to as the "Bretton Forest System", that is, foreign exchange liberalization, capital liberalization and trade liberalization are the main contents. The multilateral economic system constitutes the core content of the capitalist group.
The establishment of the Bretton Forest system has promoted the recovery and development of post -war capitalist world economy. Due to the frequent outbreak of the US dollar crisis and the US economic crisis, and the contradictory of the system itself, the system was proclaimed by the Nixon administration on August 15, 1971.
Chinese name
Bretton forest currency system
Foreign name
Bretton woods system
White
This time
July 1944
fast
navigation
system introduction
n core content
n n n n n R n The meeting was held
playing the role
system system
It operation conditions
R N Failing Revelation
The related books
The background
In the 20 years between the two world wars, the international currency system split into several competitive currency groups, countries from all countries, countries The currency competes for depreciation and turbulent.
In late World War, the US and British governments, for their own interests, conceived and designed the international monetary system after the war, proposed the "White Plan" and "Kanes Plan". The "White Plan" and "Keynes Plan" are also the purpose of establishing international financial institutions, stable exchange rates, expanding international trade, and promoting the development of the world economy, but the operation methods are different. As the United States appeared in the capitalist world alliance position after the World Economic Crisis and the Second World War, the international status of the US dollar was stable due to the strength of its international gold reserves. Fund experts jointly declare. "
The key figures to establish the Bretton Forest system are Harry White, assistant minister of the former US Department of Finance. With the status of three -quarters of the world's gold reserves and strong military strength with the post -war United States, he supports the proposal to strengthen the US dollar status. Kanes, the head of the British delegation and the master of economics, the "White Plan" became the blueprint for the final resolution of the Bretton Forest Conference.
The establishment of the Bretton Forest System
The introduction of the system
The Bretton Forest system is a gold exchange system based on the US dollar and gold. The basic content of the center's international currency system includes the U.S. dollar and gold -linked, and the currency of the members of the international currency fund member state and the US dollar maintain a fixed exchange rate (the fixed exchange rate system is implemented). The operation of the Bretton forest currency system is closely related to the reputation and status of the dollar.
Core content
"The Bretton Forest System" has established two international financial institutions of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The former is responsible for providing short -term funds to member states to ensure the stability of the international monetary system; the latter provides medium and long -term credit to promote the economic recovery of member states.
The main contents of the "Bretton Forest System" include the following points:
First, the dollar is linked to gold. Countries confirmed that the US $ 35 of the United States in January 1944, the gold official price of $ 35 per ounce, the gold content of each dollar was 0.888671 grams of gold. Governments or central banks can exchange gold to the United States at an official price for US dollars. In order to make the official price of gold from being impacted by the price of the free market, governments need to cooperate with the US government to maintain this golden official price in the international financial market.
The Bretton Forest system
Secondly, the currency of other countries is linked to the US dollar. The government of other countries stipulates the gold content of their respective currencies and determines the exchange rate of the US dollar through the proportion of gold content.
third, the adjustable fixed exchange rate is implemented. The International Monetary Fund Agreement stipulates that the exchange rate of currencies to the US dollar can only fluctuate within 1%of the statutory exchange rate. If the market exchange rate exceeds 1%of the statutory exchange rate, governments of various countries have the obligation to intervene in the foreign exchange market to maintain the stability of the exchange rate. If the legal exchange rate of the member states is more than 10%, it must be approved by the International Monetary Fund. In December 1971, the transformation of this periodic exchange rate was expanded to a range of 2.25%up and down, and the standard of "parity" was determined from gold to a special withdrawal right. The exchange rate system of the Bretton Forest System is called "adjustable nailing exchange rate system".
Active impact:
1. The formation of the Bretton Forest system temporarily ended the chaos in the pre -war currency financial field, and maintained the normal operation of the post -war world currency system.
2. The formation of the Bretton forest system has expanded world trade under relatively stable conditions.
3. After the formation of the Bretton forest system, the activities of the fund organization and the World Bank played a certain positive role in the recovery and development of the world economy. On the one hand, short -term loans provided by the Fund Organization temporarily eased the income and expenditure crisis of many countries after the war, and also promoted steady liberalization in the payment method. The loan business of the fund organization increased rapidly. Pull the third world. On the other hand, the long -term loans and investment provided and organized by the World Bank to varying degrees of investment in the recovery and development of economy after the wartime recovery and development of member states. In addition, fund organizations and World Banks provide technical assistance and establishing research materials for international economic currencies and exchange information and information on the recovery and development of the world economy.
4. The formation of the Bretton Forest system helps internationalization of production and capital. Due to the relatively stable exchange rate, the exchange rate risk caused by international capital flows is conducive to the input and output of international capital. At the same time, it has also created a good environment for international financing, helping the financial industry and the development of international financial markets, and also created good conditions for the internationalization of multinational companies.
The influence of negative:
1. Because the Bretton forest currency system is centered on the US dollar international currency system, it is conducive to the US's special status to manipulate international financial activities.
2. The fixed exchange rate is conducive to the output of inflation in the United States, exacerbating worldwide inflation, and not conducive to the use of exchange rates to adjust the balance of income and expenditure.
Active impact:
1. The formation of the Bretton Forest system temporarily ended the chaos in the pre -war currency financial field, and maintained the normal operation of the post -war world currency system.
2. The formation of the Bretton forest system has expanded world trade under relatively stable conditions.
3. After the formation of the Bretton forest system, the activities of the fund organization and the World Bank played a certain positive role in the recovery and development of the world economy. On the one hand, short -term loans provided by the Fund Organization temporarily eased the income and expenditure crisis of many countries after the war, and also promoted steady liberalization in the payment method. The loan business of the fund organization increased rapidly. Pull the third world. On the other hand, the long -term loans and investment provided and organized by the World Bank to varying degrees of investment in the recovery and development of economy after the wartime recovery and development of member states. In addition, fund organizations and World Banks provide technical assistance and establishing research materials for international economic currencies and exchange information and information on the recovery and development of the world economy.
4. The formation of the Bretton Forest system helps internationalization of production and capital. Due to the relatively stable exchange rate, the exchange rate risk caused by international capital flows is conducive to the input and output of international capital. At the same time, it has also created a good environment for international financing, helping the financial industry and the development of international financial markets, and also created good conditions for the internationalization of multinational companies.
The influence of negative:
1. Because the Bretton forest currency system is centered on the US dollar international currency system, it is conducive to the US's special status to manipulate international financial activities.
2. The fixed exchange rate is conducive to the output of inflation in the United States, exacerbating worldwide inflation, and not conducive to the use of exchange rates to adjust the balance of income and expenditure.