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wholesale wood beads for jewelry making Take Shanghai. The economic development of Shanghai is too fast. Now it is not only the largest city in China, but also the Far East Super metropolis. In 2008 and 2009, the total economic volume of Shanghai surpassed Singapore and Hong Kong, China. Now it seems that surpassing Tokyo and New York is just around the corner. From the perspective of statistical data, during the "Eleventh Five -Year Plan" period, the GDP in Shanghai increased from 924.766 billion yuan to 1687.242 billion yuan. Based on comparable prices, an average annual increase of 11.1%. In other words, the GDP of the past five years has been added together for almost 6 trillion yuan. Do you know how many of them are driven by fixed asset investment? 2.3 trillion yuan. What concept? That is to say, except for Chongming County, Shanghai's investment in each square kilometer has exceeded more than 460 million yuan! At the economic situation analysis meeting of the Shanghai Municipal Government, they also frankly said: "The model of relying on large -scale investment to drive economic growth is no longer sustainable." What is unsustainable? However, it is the same euphemistic statement as "negative growth". The truth is to decline. From January to November 2011, Shanghai completed the total investment in fixed assets of the whole society 435.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9%over the same period in 2010, of which in May of 5.7%compared to the same period in 2010. Not only in Shanghai, I also have data here. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national fixed asset investment in November 2011 decreased by 0.19%month -on -month; data from the Ministry of Transport show that from January to November 2011, the investment in fixed assets of highway waterway in the country decreased by 7.8 percentage points year -on -year. From the Ministry of Railways to the local government, the Chinese economy has trapped the debt crisis. The Ministry of Railways is actually the epitome of the entire Chinese economic development model. I issued a financial warning of the Ministry of Railways in the Spring Festival in 2011! At that time, the Ministry of Railways was still in the carnival of the "Great Leap Forward". No one listened. Not only did they find me troubles, the trouble of me, but also solemnly opened the press conference to refute me, saying what the asset -liability rate was not high. The finance is also very healthy, and the financial expert is called. As a result, less than a year, the debt issued in the capital market was frustrated, and it was unless you had to cheat. After the Ministry of Finance touched a nose ash, he deliberately dismissed the documents of the Development and Reform Commission, creating a new term as "government support bonds". Tell it as a central financial support to flickering the capital market. Media reported that "the Ministry of Railways seeks to the country for 800 billion yuan, hoping to support the financial support of 400 billion yuan, and the bonds issue 400 billion yuan at the same time, so that the railway construction is promoted smoothly." The Ministry of Railways publicly responded that the report was purely a rumor. Is it a rumor? From the financial report, 36 listed companies related to high -speed rail are 249.1 billion yuan. Why is this? Before answering this question, I will ask everyone a question: How will you invest for you to invest in your funds? I think even if you haven't read the MBA, you also know that there must be turnover funds in your hands, develop in installments, and ensure that you can recover cash after the completion of the first phase, and then invest in the project. You will not use all the money to start a dozen projects at the same time, and then borrow it everywhere after no money. However, our Ministry of Railways or local governments is more creative than you. Their habits are to smash all funds with a loan. In the 2008 country's 4 trillion investment plan, about 1.2 trillion was planned to invest in the railway. As a result, the Ministry of Railways voted into 2.4 trillion in one breath, and the 41,000 kilometers nationwide railway was launched together; the construction of a 16,000 -kilometer high -speed rail started in one breath and smashed into 1.6 trillion yuan. At the same time Go in 750 billion yuan. All the money has been smashed in, what if you have no money? Wait for the state to applink and borrow from the bank. What are the consequences of doing this? Once the country's investment is reduced, many projects under construction are immediately in trouble. In June 2011, the state began to rethink the railway planning, decided to slow down and reduce investment in railway. Here I have to rumors to the government. The government is not considering the modification plan before that after the Wenzhou EMU accident. It was good to respond to my early warning. Maybe the Ministry of Railways can still "soft land". As a result, a number of domestic railways faced the shortage of funds and were forced to stop working, and the suspension projects accounted for more than 90%of all railway projects. The Ministry of Railways engaged in the "Great Leap Forward" is the construction of high -speed rail. So what are the local governments doing? Highway, airport and transportation hub. What is worrying is that the debt crisis of local governments is fierce than the Ministry of Railways. Don't be idle to see the excitement of Europe and the United States, because our "Chinese version" debt crisis has already erupted. The financing platform in Yunnan Province has a serious debt crisis. This is not a series of individual crises, but a series of debt crisis with chain reactions. While the crisis in Yunnan, the debt financing platforms across the country have issued alert. The first is that the Yunnan Highway 100 billion loans have had technical defaults. After the emergency consultation and coordination of the Yunnan Provincial Government and the four major state -owned banks, the crisis broke out. After that, the Yunnan Provincial Government was quietly reorganized. Unfortunately, the bonds that caused the issuance in the reorganization were almost in default. These bonds include corporate bonds such as "10 Yun Investment Bonds" and "11 Yunnan Iron Investment Bonds" and short -term financing vouchers. Seven bonds of varieties. The Yunnan Provincial Government decided to set up Yunneng when he held a executive meeting on April 26, 2011, but disclosed the information only three months later. Do you still remember what the situation was when Japan's economic fever then? I tell you, almost the same as us today. However, Japan did not engage in so -called electric vehicles, nor did it built a blast furnace while breaking the blast furnace, while repairing the power plant while frying the power plant. We all know that Japan has fallen into a "lost thirty years". One of its fuses is the US stock market disaster in 1987, leading to a large amount of funds escape. At that time, the Japanese economy was very good on the surface, and the GDP continued to grow continuously for 51 months, and the Nikkei index reached its peak in 1989. However, the land price and stock price bubble became bigger and bigger. In 1992, the Japanese economy began to fall into a long -term depression. The Japanese are still embarrassed to admit their depression. What is they called this? "Pingcheng is not like", which is actually the meaning of economic recession. Unfortunately, Japan is still in "Pingcheng." Japan's GDP has fallen sharply since 1990. So, how did the Japanese government save the economy at that time? The way they adopt is to stimulate the economy by large -scale fiscal expenditures and reduce interest rates. A total of nine large -scale stimulus countermeasures were implemented before and after, of which 7 times were as high as 10 trillion to 18 trillion yen, and the total scale was as high as 136 trillion yen, close to one -third of the GDP. The discount rate was reduced from July 1991 to September 1993, 7 consecutive times, from 6%to 1.75%. By 1995, Japan was slightly relieved, but the stimulus policy did not stop. The discount rate was twice reduced twice that year, and it dropped to 0.5%. The Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997, and Japan began to stimulate. In 1998, the Japanese government implemented comprehensive economic countermeasures twice, using a total of 4.06 trillion yen of public funds. After that, the Japanese government began to reduce taxes on a large scale to adjust all aspects of land, employment and SMEs. As a result, the Japanese government stimulated once, and the economy had a brief recovery, but withdrawal stimulus fell. In the long run, public debt expenditures have made the Japanese government's fiscal situation worsen. It turns out that the adopted method of "injection strong heart" has not made the Japanese economy really improve. In the 1990s, Japan's actual GDP growth rate was only 1.1%. At the same time, due to the large -scale stimulus policy, Japan's fiscal deficit is climbed. The proportion of long -term debt in GDP increased from 51%in 1992 to 136%in 2002, and later exceeded 200%! Such a heavy fiscal debt cannot be resolved in the short term. Based on data in 2009, Japanese government debt was almost unable to repay. In 2009, Japan's GDP was about 48 trillion yen. The economic growth rate was calculated at 2%, and up to 10 trillion yen per year, deducting social insurance and rental tax burden. Based on 25%-30%, the annual increase of taxes was only 25,000. 100 million to 3 trillion yen. If you deduct economic growth and long -term interest changes, it will take more than 300 years to repay the 88 trillion yen debt! I talked about so many questions about Japan. The purpose is to say that we will not stole Kanesism. If Kanes knows his theory is so harmful, he may make his own work. The 30 years lost in Japan told us a very simple truth: fiscal stimulus, low interest rates, and government debt investment, all invalid. It is precisely because of this blindness that the economic foundation will become more and more virtual, and it will become farther away from the depression. Finally, let me summarize it. Through my analysis, you should be able to clearly see the overall pattern of China's economy -exports are not good, domestic demand has not improved, and investment has no money. First of all, exports are unsustainable, the trade surplus has dropped rapidly, and even occasionally deficit will occur. Traditional export industries, such as IT products, electromechanical products, and even labor -intensive processing trade, have fallen into depression due to weak external demand and high internal costs. Secondly, domestic demand has no improvement. Under the stagflation of some industries, the increase in costs is much higher than the increase in sales, so sales are increasing and profits are decreasing. Of course, objectively speaking, exports and domestic demand have not been the main force of GDP. Our true main force has always been investing, and it is the infrastructure and real estate led by the government. Of course The infrastructure instead of people's livelihood is transferred. Where did the money we invested from before? They all come from our people. Because the people dare not consume, they save money in the bank. The money was transferred to local governments and real estate developers. These people spent money to make big hands, and starting with the project is either a "Great Leap Forward" or "Satellite", and after a breath, it has completed the family foundation accumulated for more than 30 years. When everyone finds that there is no rice in the pot, I see that the half -pull project is full of it. The industries that were pulled by 4 trillion were basically into the valley. We should understand the truth that the economic cycle is not as good as the season cycle. For the season cycle, winter is coming, and spring is not far. But after the economic cold winter, it may enter another glacier. Today's Great Depression is the price that the "Great Leap Forward" in the past few years. If we still expect to go out of the crisis by this old road, we will only fall into the Japanese -style 30 -year depression. Many people don't know how depressed the Chinese economy is now! In 2011, China's GDP increased to 9.24%. Many people may think it was okay, but not two digits increased, but after all, it was still increasing. However, the real situation is that the Chinese economy is undergoing a landslide. Except for the statistics of the statistics of the GDP and CPL, the real economy data we see are declining! Investment, exports and consumption have begun to fall into the Great Depression. Let's talk about consumption first. I take the shoes that everyone have to wear as an example. At first, Li Ning, who was in the middle and high -end, couldn't work in 2010. It was unprecedentedly closed by five or six hundred stores. Next, the middle -end of the Pork is not good. In 2011, 100 stores were closed. In 2012, the increase in order amount increased significantly, and returned to the trough of 2009. Of course, some people say that sales volume is still increasing? I tell you that this is the terrible stagflation-the surface is rising, in fact, and many economic indicators have failed. On the surface, sales revenue is rising, but the increase in retail prices cannot keep up with the increase in costs. As a result, the more sales, the more profitable. Taking Anta's shoes as an example, the sales price rose L5%, but the cost of raw materials rose by 20%. The same is true of the Chinese economy. On the surface, although it is no longer a high growth, it still rises slightly, but it is actually declining. Porkic and Anta are pretty good, at least the book is still growing. According to the statistics of the China Umbrella State Business Information Center, in August 2011, the number of clothing retail sales of hundreds of large -scale retail companies across the country decreased by 1.98%year -on -year. This is the first time that the number of clothing retail sales in recent months has fallen year -on -year. Most of the clothing products that are closely related to the people show a year -on -year negative growth, including men's shirts, T -shirts, leather clothing, pants, knitted underwear, cashmere and wool sweater, and even declined year -on -year women's retail volume. What I want to remind everyone is that don't believe what some experts say are prosperous, because these people have completely made a concept of "total retail sales of social consumer goods". And service, do not consider whether this consumer group is government, enterprise or ordinary people. You must know that a considerable part of our statistical data on the total retail sales of social consumer goods is "three public" consumption. The place where ordinary people can consume are supermarkets. Judging from the sales of supermarkets and franchise stores in September 2011, the year -on -year growth rate decreased by 0.1 and 1.2 percentage points from August. Let's talk about import and export. I issued a warning a year ago, that is, the economy will definitely bottom out twice. In the third quarter of 2011, I issued a warning again. Why? Because in September 2011 our 1: 3 declined significantly. In this regard, many of our experts say that this is a brief decline, unfortunately. This so -called short decline has not stopped until now.